Let’s Celebrate!
I have data through the end of June (almost) so I thought I’d share an updated chart. The data reinforces the trend we saw when Colorado first moved from its stay-at-home phase to the current safer-at-home phase. Basically, despite a significant increase in testing, the number of people testing positively has remained low.
Looks good, right? Three months ago all the fuss was about “flattening the curve” and that red line looks pretty darn flat. Hospitalizations and deaths are way down too. Let’s celebrate!
Not So Fast!
But the picture isn’t completely rosy and being data-driven about our decisions means we have a responsibility to use the data objectively. One of the things the chart above does not illustrate very well is that positive cases in Colorado have actually been on the upswing of late. Some of that is to be expected as restrictions on retailers and some other business segments have loosened. But it’s a bit concerning heading into the holiday weekend – some are predicting a spike in cases due to large gatherings.
To capture this upswing, I looked at the daily change in the number of cases (rather than the total cases) and I used a 7-day average to eliminate the ups and downs of weekly reporting. The number of cases is usually lowest on Mondays not because fewer people get sick on Mondays, but because fewer tests are run on Sundays.
Same data, different story. If the 7-day average gets back to around 375, that’s about when Polis issued the stay-at-home order. I’m not saying it’s going to happen – I’m just pointing out it’s what happened in recent history.
Stay Calm
It’s not a cause for alarm yet, so let’s try to stay calm. A few points I’d like to make:
We will continue to take in the latest data and avoid hasty decisions. Many of you have taken the time to provide thoughtful input. Thanks to you and the leadership team for your patience and professionalism in discussing all factors. In keeping with this theme, we are going to wait and see how the data looks coming out of 4th of July celebrations. We’ll keep the status quo for at least the next couple of weeks.
It should not be a surprise that up until this late-breaking upturn we were talking about how we’d like to see more people, particularly the sales team, taking advantage of time in the office. It was just bad timing. The pandemic kicked us out of the office while this team, the least tenured team, was still learning the ropes. We’re working on a plan that will set aside more time for the sales team beginning Monday, July 13. At that point, we’ll break from the “Group A/B” approach we’ve been using and begin tailoring schedules by department. Department heads will be sharing more detail. If cases have surged, we’ll adjust accordingly.
A return to the office means that each of us must be accountable for our own health in order to be accountable for the safety of the rest. I’m mentioning this now because the nature of this virus requires that we all be healthy and safe for a 14-day period before we return. There are things we can do to ensure a safe workplace, and I’ll reiterate the steps we’re taking in a follow-up post, but they are largely predicated on safe behavior outside of the workplace. To this end, we’re also working on a statement we’d like everyone to sign. I recently signed one before going to the dentist. Basically, it said I hadn’t had any symptoms, traveled to another country or state, etc. in the preceding 14 days. It was assuring for the dental staff of course, but also for me knowing that every other patient attested to the same. We want the same assurance for everyone at Simplifya.