COVID Update September 4

In this update, I thought I’d share a more personal perspective. For months, I was able to think and talk about the impact of COVID-19 as an “innocent bystander.” Nobody I knew had tested positive. In fact, for a time, nobody I knew, knew of anyone who had tested positive.

In All Seriousness

That’s not to say I was doubting the existence of COVID-19 or that I was discounting the threat of COVID-19. I’m just saying it was hard in the beginning to calibrate the seriousness of the matter without a direct impact to my circle of friends and family. Inevitably, that has begun to change.

• First, a friend who is a nurse got it and promptly infected her husband. Thankfully, they were able to isolate in time to prevent their kids from getting it. They were very sick and took a few weeks to recover. To this day, they are dealing with occasional bouts of fatigue, getting unusually winded going up stairs, for example.
• Then, another friend’s father tested positive and was hospitalized due to labored breathing. He hung on for a couple weeks, but passed away in the hospital. It was incredibly sad as nobody was allowed to visit him.
• The preschool that my wife and I own experienced it’s first positive case last month. A student tested positive, forcing us to close a classroom for two weeks. Days later, the student’s sibling tested positive, forcing us to close another classroom (out of five). Tensions are super high between the parents of the children who tested positive, parents of the students who now have to quarantine for two weeks, and school staff, who also have to quarantine. Lots of finger-pointing.
• Most recently, one of Tia’s cousins passed away in her sleep. She had COVID-19 a couple of months ago and had since recovered. But she also had a pre-existing heart condition and doctor’s think coronavirus-induced heart damage led to heart failure and death. She was only 49 and leaves behind two boys.

Now that I have this series of unfortunate experiences, I have a better sense of – I can’t think of a better word – the seriousness of the pandemic. People I know directly have gotten it. Some have recovered, albeit with long term effects. Some have died, even after recovering. When people get it, it’s easy to become judgmental. When people act paranoid, it causes me stress. When people discount the threat, it causes me stress. It all adds up to this potato bag of seriousness that sits on my shoulders day and night.

Somehow, a bag of potatoes is what comes to mind when I think of being serious. But I digress…

Data Trending in the Right Direction (Again)

In the last update, I mentioned how the second wave was both bigger and less harmful than the first wave. Geeks always back up what they say with data, so here are some charts showing trends through the end of August:

First, an update of a chart I’ve shared before. The chart above clearly illustrates the magnitude of the first and second waves. After the second wave, the average falls and then plateaus at roughly 300 per day. I believe this is because several school districts started in-person learning the third week of August. Jeffco Public Schools, where my kids go, started with remote learning and move to in-person next week. As a result, a moderate increase through the end of September should be expected.

This chart allows you to see that while new hospitalizations rose during the second wave, we didn’t see the huge spikes that we saw in May and June. The increase toward the end of July is actually very mild.

And this final chart shows that the second wave did not have a significant impact on the average number of deaths per day. Again, even one death is tragic – I’m not discounting the significance of someone dying. I’m just pointing out that a large increase in positive cases toward the end of July did not result in a large increase in deaths.

Take Care of Yourselves

I know several of you have “near-COVID” experiences as well, but I don’t know how you’re coping with the … seriousness of it all. I would encourage you to lean on family and friends by sharing your experiences and listening to theirs. One of the most effective coping strategies is to understand that you’re not alone, that people all around you are experiencing similar.

Me? Well, I feel better just having written this post. Plus, I’m making some baked potatoes tonight. That bag is getting lighter already!